Long Term Edge or Just Lucky Enough?

Congratulations for having a great site!

By the way, before anything else, I would like to share something about myself and my game. I’m a player fond of texas holdem for a year now. And I have already read 4 books and done a lot of research on the net for some additional knowledge, strategies, etc.

Usually, I play cash games at the casino at a ´2/2 No Limit table where min buy-in is 50-200. So far, I have played about 15 times all in all and somehow this is a total surprise!

My results are:
▪ +6
▪ +120
▪ -100
▪ +84
▪ +92
▪ +142
▪ +293
▪ +158
▪ -34
▪ -70
▪ -120
▪ +25

My question now is about whether I really have the edge and potential of a good poker player or I was just lucky at all. Can I possibly find this out the cheapest way or another way around?

I play with not so much action actually and just like the typical way – playing on average better starting hands, keeping bluffs at a minimum and considering pot odds as well as playing according to the amount of money at the table. But this seems to really work, fortunately. Normally, most players lose back all their winnings and even much more, but with me, it’s so much different.

Do I have the edge for long term?

Thanks, Ryan

Ryan,

You seem to have a solid game plan for the games you are playing, but this is really not a long enough stretch to determine if you are playing well or just having a decent run. The best way to determine is to go for a period of 3 to 6 months and see how your numbers turn out. If you are a player that play just once a week, then you probably need to expand that around 6 months to a year. You need a long range of data to allow for variance.

From what you told me, you will do ok in most average and weak games, but against better players, you may find difficulty. I would keep track of your stats and work on your game and then reevaluate.

Tags: long term edge, no limit, Texas Holdem