Does Luck Intervene?

I don’t know if you can still remember the email I sent you about a month ago about a situation where i flopped the nut straight, have my opponent all-in, and by a miracle card, got rivered. In my email, I was asking you if I you think I played too sharply and that results may have sided on my part if I bet less. Then you answered back that it was okay to give it all when the nuts are very visible. Well, I believed on that as well.

I actually applied that strategy then but lost everything, unfortunately. I played online with 25$, in a 0.02$-0.04$ limit and some no limit. In a few months, I was able to recover with 140$ but lost everything in 2 weeks because of situations where in:

I lost 5 of my last 7 ace high flushes
I lost my last 2 Ace high straights
I lost 2 of my last 3 full houses
I lost my last 2 A-A-A

But not all situations went bad. There was also a point where in I have K-6 of diamonds in the big blinds.

And giving me the nut flush, flop is 2-8-A all of diamonds. To maximize my profits, I just bet a small amount to have a few callers and eventually raisers. In just a matter of time, one player goes all-in and me being excited made a call. He showed pocket 10s and wrote the “F” word in the chat window. I almost lost my balance while sitting on my chair because of excitement. Eventually the turn brings a 10, then the river comes and the other 10.

Just this day, I flopped a full house and lost once again to quadruple 10s as well as to 6-6-6. I almost lost everything. I tried to raise and re-raise but it wasn’t effective. Therefore, right now, I’m more sure that playing too aggressively or sharply won’t bring any good. Unless the losses I have experienced were just because of bad beats. Well, if so, how long can that affect me perhaps?

At some point, because of my past experiences, I have developed a certain theory that goes as follows:

Online table, 6 players (A through F). I’m player F and assume that I’m an expert player. Player A will loose all his money to the other players, and he’ll bad beat me for once on a flush draw. Another player in the person of player B will also bad beat me once as will player C, D and E. Then a good number of players will instantly call to the river with any flush draw. At a 6 player table, a draw is very possible and to fold is opposite.

Well, if this happens every day, how can I not lose everything in just a couple of weeks?

Because of this, I switched back to limit thinking that playing no-limit wasn’t for me. I thought it was just a bad idea to play no-limit. I’m not a pro in whatever type, limit or no-limit, but the bad beats keep coming while I keep on playing no-limit.

2 bad beats were not good. The board was Q-10-Q-Q-2. Suddenly, I had A-10 and went all-in and lost to a guy with the 4th Q. It was a total costly mistake I of course have to pay.

I’m not sure if my theory sounds sensible. But I saw something similar to my troubles in a World Poker Tour event the other day on TV. An amateur perhaps, kept playing bad cards and just like me played them too aggressively or sharply. To make the story short, he won the tournament, coming home with a million dollars.

So, do you think luck really intervenes with your possible winnings? By the way, thanks for the wonderful site! Great work!

Thanks,
Mark

Mark,

Swings of luck in either direction can have a big impact on your winnings. You are playing solid poker, but you are getting unlucky. In poker, the best you can hope for is to make sound decisions and get your money in with the best of it.

When you get outdrawn and sucked out on, it is part of poker. Playing Limit poker will help a little on the fluctuations of your bankroll but it will not change your luck.

The only thing you can do is to continue to make sound decisions and in the end, the luck will even out.

Tags: ace hich straights, ace high flushes, amateur, full house, limit, luck, no limit, Texas Holdem, world poker tour